Convergence vs. Divergence
Back in 2003, when I was consulting for a mobile chipset manufacturer in San Diego, all the rage was “divergence” on their beautiful, sprawling campus. Basically we would have gadgets that did one thing, did it really well and did it in a package so small one could barely see them . For example your mobile phone, would just make calls, but it would be so small, you would basically put it in your ear in the morning and forget about it.
Similar visions around that time went so far as to describe cameras worn like contact lenses, TV’s the size of a light bulb you project on a wall somewhere and MP3 players which are planted in your ear.
Clearly none of those visions have materialized, at least not in a commercial way. (iPod shuffle is the closest we ever got) If you think about it, on average, the sizes of the phones we carry around have actually increased. If you had a phone the size of the current iPhone back in 2003, you’d be seen as behind the times.
Instead, we opted for “convergence”. We have phones that are also cameras, mini-computers, mp3 players, game consoles, organizers, alarm clocks among other things, depending on the brand. The divergent side would have ever imagined the iPhone taking off as it did. They imagined a Nokia-ruled world, with smaller and smaller phones.
Reading the latest memo by Nokia CEO Stephen Elop took me back to those days and thought maybe Nokia’s complacency was a result of their overconfidence in a divergent world. In a commoditized, micro-phone world, with Nokia in bed with all the operators, likes of Apple and Google would just be building computer software. The Blackberry would remain a workaholic’s oddity. Much like our home phones never really turned into desktop computers, the Finns thought our cell phones would never turn into mini computers.
But they did…
So, here’s why I’m pondering these issues lately. I keep running into the same convergence vs. divergence debate over and over in the context of the Internet.
Do we want mega eCommerce malls like Amazon, Overstock, EBay, GittiGidiyor, HepsiBurada or do we want verticalized niche stores on the Internet, like BlueFly or NewEgg?
Do we want Monster.com where all the jobs are, or do we want verticalized job sites like Dice.com?
How about private shopping?
Social networks? Do we want everybody we know on one network, or do we want them in seperate networks depending on the milieu of our relationship?
News? Do we want CNN.com, MSNBC.com or do we want ESPN.com, Weather.com, Marketwatch.com?
Looking at the list of questions above, it’s easy to think that a certain balance has been reached and convergence has mostly won here as well.
I think the verdict may not be in yet. Divergence in mobile just meant introducing limitations. Divergence on the Internet may mean introducing variety and focus that convergers can’t afford to bring.
My view is that divergent sites on the internet are underrepresented and those who see building a divergent site as a challenge rather than a short cut will prevail in their verticals over the convergents. At iLab, we are on the lookout for those entrepreneurs and see their ventures as long-term growth opportunities.
Director
iLab Ventures
very interesting analysis.
i am not sure if there is going to be one answer(winning formula) that can apply accross the board. the chances are that we will have both at the same time . in some reas the convergents are going to be more successful, in some other areas the divergents. domain specific issues and relative execution differences as usual will tip the scale.
Consumer goods and online services create different attitudes. As the profile of the worldwide internet users is changing constantly, there is no one specific approach to your questioning for the time being. In my opinion convergence and divergence will continue to fluctuate based upon the internet users’ profile and the area in which the website is providing services. There will be crests and troughs even at the same time but in different regions of the world let say for only convergence or divergence.